S&P Global Ratings said India’s strong macroeconomic and financial fundamentals are likely to soften the blow of a prolonged oil price shock, but growth could still decline by up to 80 basis points if Brent crude averages around $130 per barrel in 2026. Under this stress scenario, the agency expects corporate EBITDA to fall by 15–25% in FY27, while leverage could increase by 0.5x to 1x. Bank asset quality may also deteriorate, with non-performing loans rising to about 3.5%.
The report noted that India is not fully insulated from disruptions linked to the West Asia conflict, as higher energy prices and supply constraints could weigh on households, businesses, and banks for an extended period. At the same time, S&P highlighted that strong corporate balance sheets, well-capitalised banks, and a stable external position would act as important buffers.
In its assumptions, Brent crude is projected at $130 per barrel in 2026 and $100 in 2027 under stress conditions, compared with a base case of $85 and $70. The agency does not anticipate any immediate sovereign rating impact, although fiscal consolidation may face short-term pressure. Rising oil prices could also widen India’s current account deficit, with each $10 increase in crude potentially adding about 0.4 percentage points of GDP to the gap. The rupee may come under depreciation pressure due to higher import costs and weaker investor sentiment.
S&P added that an energy shock would likely pass through the economy via higher production costs, margin pressure, inflation, and possible government subsidies, which could strain public finances. Sectors such as chemicals, refining, and aviation are expected to be most affected, while infrastructure and utilities may remain relatively stable.
Despite these risks, India enters 2026 with strong growth momentum, solid domestic demand, and low inflation, which should help absorb near-term shocks. Corporate deleveraging and improved banking health over recent years are also expected to limit systemic stress. Indian banks are seen as capable of handling the impact due to strong capital buffers and low bad loans, though credit costs and profitability may face mild pressure in FY27. S&P said India is positioned to withstand short-term oil price spikes and supply disruptions, but a prolonged shock could pose risks to growth, fiscal stability, and external balances. It added that while some strain is manageable, fiscal consolidation efforts may be temporarily delayed.
Disclaimer: This image is taken from Bloomberg.
In light of China’s growing naval activity and shifting security ties involving Bangladesh and Pakistan, the Indian Navy is planning to set up a strategic base at Haldia in West Bengal. The initiative aims to strengthen India’s maritime presence in the northern Bay of Bengal amid changing regional dynamics. According to reports, the facility will function as a naval “detachment,” primarily focused on deploying small, fast warships capable of rapid-response operations. By using the existing Haldia dock infrastructure, the Navy can make the base operational quickly with minimal additional construction.
Early development will include building a dedicated jetty and essential shore-based support systems. This approach of utilising current port facilities ensures faster implementation while keeping the setup compact and mission-oriented. The Haldia unit is expected to host Fast Interceptor Crafts (FICs) and 300-tonne New Water Jet Fast Attack Crafts (NWJFACs), which can reach speeds of 40 to 45 knots, making them well-suited for interception and coastal security tasks. These vessels will be equipped with CRN-91 guns and advanced systems such as loitering munitions like the Nagastra, enhancing their surveillance, precision strike, and rapid-response capabilities.
The decision to establish the base is driven by China’s increasing influence in the Indian Ocean and its strengthening defence and infrastructure ties with Bangladesh. This is further complicated by China’s long-standing military relationship with Pakistan, forming a strategic challenge that India aims to address. The base will be relatively small, with around 100 personnel, indicating its role as a specialised operational outpost rather than a major naval command. Located about 100 kilometres from Kolkata, it offers direct access to the Bay of Bengal, avoiding the longer route through the Hooghly River.
Regional concerns intensified last November when the Pakistan Navy deployed PNS Saif, a Chinese-built guided missile frigate, to Bangladesh. The visit was seen as significant by observers, especially as it coincided with improving defence ties between Bangladesh and Pakistan following the departure of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in August 2024. During this period, both countries also conducted their first-ever two-star level naval staff talks, and Indian officials expect this cooperation to deepen further in the future.
Disclaimer: This image is taken from Indian Defence News.
OpenAI’s estimated $852 billion valuation is reportedly facing increased scrutiny from some of its own investors as the company shifts its strategic focus toward the enterprise market in an effort to compete more directly with Anthropic, according to a Financial Times report. The report notes that OpenAI recently raised $122 billion in what could be the largest funding round in Silicon Valley history. Despite this milestone, the company has revised its product roadmap twice over the past six months, driven by intensifying competition first from Google and then from Anthropic.
Some investors are concerned that these repeated strategic adjustments may weaken OpenAI’s competitive position against rivals such as Anthropic and a resurgent Google, even as the company prepares for a potential initial public offering as early as this year. Industry analysts have also suggested that Anthropic’s revenue growth rate could soon overtake that of OpenAI within a matter of months. The company is also accelerating efforts to expand enterprise adoption across its product ecosystem globally amid intensifying market competition pressure.
An early investor told the Financial Times that the company appears unfocused, questioning why it is prioritizing enterprise and coding tools despite ChatGPT’s massive user base and rapid consumer growth. OpenAI Chief Financial Officer Sarah Friar rejected claims that investors are dissatisfied with the company’s direction, stating that such suggestions do not reflect the actual situation.
In a statement to Reuters, an OpenAI spokesperson said the $122 billion fundraising round was heavily oversubscribed, completed quickly, and supported by a wide range of leading global investors, underscoring strong confidence in the company’s strategy, current momentum, and long-term growth potential.
Disclaimer: This image is taken from Reuters.
Farmers in Kallair Balla village of Punjab’s Amritsar district celebrated Vaisakhi on Tuesday with immense joy and enthusiasm. On this auspicious occasion, they began harvesting wheat using traditional sickles while enjoying the rhythmic beats of drums. Before starting the harvest, they performed Ardas to express gratitude to God for a successful Rabi crop, especially wheat.
Vaisakhi marks the Punjabi New Year and symbolizes prosperity, gratitude, and the beginning of the harvest season. Ranjit Singh, a farmer from the village, shared that the festival holds deep cultural and religious importance. He highlighted that the day commemorates the historic moment when Guru Gobind Singh Ji founded the Khalsa Panth and introduced the tradition of Amrit Sanchar.
He also noted that this is the time when wheat ripens in Punjab and harvesting begins. Agriculture continues to be a primary source of livelihood in the state, supporting both farmers and laborers. Despite modern machinery like combine harvesters, many farmers still start the process manually as a mark of tradition.
Ranjit Singh emphasized the importance of beginning any new task, especially harvesting, with prayers and Ardas to seek divine blessings. He added that wheat is a crucial crop that meets the country’s food requirements for the entire year. Recalling the past, he mentioned that India once depended on wheat imports under the PL-480 Act from the United States, but Punjab’s farmers played a vital role in making the nation self-sufficient in food production. Even today, they remain central to India’s food security.
Farmer Kawardeep Singh described the atmosphere as joyful not only in their village but across the entire state, as people celebrate Vaisakhi with great enthusiasm. He emphasized the festival’s cultural and historical significance. Another farmer, Daljit Singh, stated that Vaisakhi is a major occasion for the farming community as it marks the readiness of the wheat crop for harvest. After offering prayers, farmers have started cutting the crop, feeling a deep sense of pride and happiness. For them, the harvest represents the result of nearly six months of hard work, care, and patience.
Farmers nurture their crops like their own children, facing various challenges throughout the season. This day brings the reward of their efforts, along with financial stability and hope for the future. The harvest supports household needs and helps prepare for the next cropping cycle. Across Punjab, the harvesting season begins with prayers, celebrations, and traditional rituals. The festive spirit is enhanced by dhol beats and community gatherings. As Kawardeep Singh explained, just like a business reaches its final stage of returns, this is the moment when farmers receive the fruits of their labor—their “golden crop”—bringing both fulfillment and preparation for the seasons ahead.
Disclaimer: This image is taken from ANI.
China said President Xi Jinping proposed a four-point plan for peace in the Middle East, focusing on peaceful coexistence, respect for sovereignty, adherence to UN principles, and balancing development with security. The proposal was shared by Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning during a meeting with the UAE Crown Prince in Beijing.
Disclaimer: This image is taken from Reuters.
Myanmar’s military leader Min Aung Hlaing has been sworn in as president, marking a continuation of his authority from a civilian position five years after seizing power in a military coup. The ceremony, held in the capital Naypyidaw, was presented as a celebratory parliamentary event, where the 69-year-old took the presidential oath, pledging to uphold the enduring values of justice, liberty, and equality. Andrea Heng and Hairianto Diman discuss potential policy shifts and international reactions to his reappointment with CNA’s ASEAN Senior Correspondent Leong Wai Kit.
Disclaimer: This podcast is taken from CNA.
Donald Trump has reportedly ordered a large-scale naval operation in the Strait of Hormuz following unsuccessful peace talks held in Pakistan. The operation is said to target ships moving through Iranian ports in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. In a related discussion, analysts including Stephen Zunes provided insights on the latest developments, as presenters Andrea Heng and Hairianto Diman examined the situation.
Disclaimer: This podcast is taken from CNA.
Coverage was dominated by claims that rogue LLMs were responsible, but they had no role in the targeting. The reality is far more unsettling: this atrocity did not emerge from artificial intelligence, but from a long chain of human decisions, policies, and actions taken over many years that ultimately led to this tragic outcome.
Disclaimer: This podcast is taken from The Guardian.
A new AI system developed by NTU can forecast the rate at which food spoils, enabling supermarkets to reduce waste, enhance safety, and manage inventory more efficiently. The technology works by predicting bacterial growth in food. Could this signal the future of food retail? Andrea Heng and Hairianto Diman discuss with Natalie Ong, CNA journalist, and Professor William Chen, Executive Director of FRESH@NTU, to explore the possibilities.
Disclaimer: This podcast is taken from CNA.
