President Donald Trump disclosed a touch of strain in his otherwise warm relationship with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, attributing it squarely to the punishing US tariffs India pays on exports linked to its Russian oil imports. Speaking candidly to reporters on Air Force One and at a Republican event over the weekend, Trump recounted Modi approaching him directly amid the trade spat.

Trump shared the exchange with his signature flair: "Prime Minister Modi came to see me, ‘Sir, may I see you please?’ I have a very good relationship with him. He's not that happy with me because they're paying a lot of tariffs now." He highlighted positives like India's purchase of 68 Apache helicopters but made clear the 50% duties—ramped up since August 2025, including a 25% penalty for discounted Russian crude—remain a flashpoint. These measures, Trump argued, have effectively curbed India's oil buys, dropping from 1.84 million barrels per day in November to 1.2 million in December, with Reliance Industries skipping January shipments altogether.

The tariffs have already bitten into India's $87 billion annual exports to the US, down 20.7% from May to November 2025, hammering sectors like textiles, gems, jewelry, leather, marine products, and chemicals—55% of the total at risk. Pharma, semiconductors, and critical minerals stay exempt, but exporters face order losses in the key winter season, spurring diversification to other markets despite challenges for MSMEs and farmers.

Amid six rounds of talks for a framework deal to unwind the tariffs, India resists US demands for agri concessions on items like almonds, corn, and apples, prioritizing domestic protections. Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agrawal noted progress toward a pact "sooner than later," with new US Ambassador Sergio Gor set to join in January, potentially accelerating a bilateral trade agreement. Eurasia Group's Ian Bremmer predicts a resolution in the first half of 2026, as oil leverage wanes.

Trump's remarks blend tough love with optimism, calling Modi a "good guy" while warning of hikes if needed—testing the duo's track record of navigating disputes from past summits to shared China concerns. As negotiations heat up, the US-India partnership hangs in the balance, with exporters eyeing quick relief to secure 2026 orders.