India is projected to contribute 6% to global trade growth over the next five years, as per the DHL Trade Atlas 2025 report, jointly published by New York University’s Stern School of Business and German logistics firm DHL. The report, which analyzes trade trends across nearly 200 countries and territories, indicates that India’s role in global trade expansion will be the third largest, following China at 12% and the United States at 10%. "India also emerges as the country with the third-highest absolute trade growth forecast (6% of additional global trade), trailing only China (12%) and the US (10%)," the report stated. It also highlighted that despite geopolitical challenges and trade policy uncertainties, global trade has shown resilience.

India is expected to maintain its third position in trade scale growth, attributed to its faster trade expansion compared to other major economies. Additionally, the country is projected to improve its ranking on the trade speed dimension, rising from 32nd to 17th place. Although India ranked as the 13th largest player in international trade in 2024, its trade volume grew at a compound annual rate of 5.2% between 2019 and 2024, significantly surpassing the global average of 2.0% during the same period.

"India’s rapid trade expansion is driven by its strong macroeconomic growth and increasing integration into global trade. While China is often seen as a more trade-driven economy, India's goods trade-to-GDP ratio was nearly equal to China’s in 2023. Moreover, India’s trade intensity, considering both goods and services, exceeded that of China," the report noted.

Looking ahead, the report forecasts that India, alongside Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines, will be among the top 30 countries in terms of both trade speed and scale over the next five years. Speaking to ANI, RS Subramanian, SVP South Asia at DHL Express, remarked, "The Trade Atlas highlights India's rapid global trade expansion, reinforcing its role as a key link between the East and West. While we foresee rising trade volumes and an increasing global trade share, we remain cautiously optimistic given ongoing economic volatility."

India's Foreign Trade Status: According to data from the Ministry of Commerce and Industry for March 2025, India’s total exports (including both goods and services) during April-February 2024-25 are estimated at $750.53 billion, marking a 6.24% year-on-year (Y-o-Y) growth from $706.43 billion in the previous fiscal period.

In February 2025, major contributors to merchandise export growth included electronic goods, rice, mica, coal, processed minerals, textiles, and coffee. Trade with key partners such as the US, UAE, UK, China, Japan, Brazil, and Australia remained robust. The trade deficit for the financial year 2023-24 (FY24) narrowed to $78.12 billion, down from $121.6 billion in FY23, as per the Ministry of Finance.

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Russia has surpassed the United Arab Emirates to become India’s top supplier of naphtha in the year leading up to March 2025, as Indian refiners take advantage of discounted shipments, according to preliminary ship-tracking data. This trend is expected to continue for another year. India, the world’s third-largest crude oil importer and consumer, has increasingly relied on cheaper Russian oil to cut import costs, despite Western sanctions aimed at reducing Moscow’s revenues during the Ukraine conflict. Russia has also been India's primary crude oil supplier for the past two years.

Between April 2024 and March 2025, India imported approximately 3 million tonnes (74,000 barrels per day) of naphtha, with Russia accounting for more than half of the total— a significant increase from just 14-16% in the previous year, as per data from OilX and Kpler. Russian naphtha shipments from Ust-Luga, Sheskharis, and Novorossiysk ports were delivered to western Indian ports such as Mundra, Hazira, and Sikka. These supplies were directed to petrochemical plants operated by HPCL Mittal Energy Ltd (HMEL) and Reliance Industries.

HMEL's Managing Director & CEO, Prabh Das, stated at an industry event that the company would continue to buy from the most cost-effective sources but did not specifically comment on Russian oil purchases. Reliance Industries did not respond to requests for comment. As of this week, Russian naphtha was priced $14-$15 per tonne lower than Middle Eastern alternatives, according to two trade sources.

Although India ranks seventh among Asian naphtha importers, its imports are expected to increase due to rising domestic petrochemical demand and the launch of new petrochemical crackers over the next 3-4 years. Meanwhile, the UAE's share—primarily supplied by Abu Dhabi National Oil Company—dropped to just over 20%, nearly half of what it was in the previous period.

A source from an integrated refining complex in northern India noted that the cost-effectiveness of Russian supplies makes them an attractive choice, especially since Indian refining margins have been lower than expected this year. Following Europe’s ban on Russian oil imports in response to the 2022 Ukraine invasion, Russia has redirected its naphtha exports to Asian markets.

Analysts suggest that a potential Ukraine ceasefire deal being pursued by the Trump administration could lead to the lifting of sanctions on Russian oil. However, even if U.S. sanctions are removed, Europe may still avoid Russian imports, ensuring that Asian countries remain Russia’s primary oil buyers, according to Rystad Energy analyst Jorge Leon.

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