Sugar Prices Ease, but Crop Prospects Remain Uncertain as ISMA Watches Rainfall Trends

Sugar prices have eased after a brief rise and are currently trading between ₹44 and ₹49 per kg, excluding GST. While prices remain within a manageable range, the outlook for the upcoming sugarcane crop is still unclear, with the Indian Sugar & Bio-Energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) waiting for more rainfall data before releasing its production estimate. ISMA President Niraj Shirgaokar said the association wants to assess rainfall trends over the next six weeks before finalising its forecast. He said the crop estimate is likely to be discussed at the association’s next committee meeting.

“We need to monitor the rainfall pattern over the next six weeks,” Shirgaokar said on the sidelines of the India Sugar & Bio-Energy Conference. He added that ISMA is using several assessment methods, including artificial intelligence-based technology, to make its crop projections more accurate. Shirgaokar also pointed to the potential influence of El Nino on the sugar sector. According to him, the weather phenomenon could have a greater impact on plantation activity next year, while the effect on the current crop will depend largely on how rainfall develops across different states.

“Different states could see different outcomes depending on the rainfall,” he said, stressing that the situation would need to be monitored closely. Sugar prices have remained relatively stable after rising briefly, according to Prakash Naiknavare, Managing Director of the National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories Ltd. Naiknavare said the recent increase in prices was short-lived and that rates have since cooled. Sugar is currently selling at around ₹44 to ₹49 per kg before GST, a range he described as manageable for both producers and consumers.

He said prices at these levels broadly cover production costs without creating significant pressure on consumers. The latest developments present a mixed picture for the sugar industry. Although the market has remained relatively stable, uncertainty over rainfall continues to make it difficult to determine the size of the next crop. ISMA is expected to provide a clearer production outlook after reviewing rainfall trends over the coming six weeks, with its next committee meeting likely to play a key role in finalising the estimate.

Disclaimer: This image is taken from ANI.