The arithmetic in the Lok Sabha suggests a clear edge for the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), which is backing the proposed Constitution (131st Amendment) Bill. Around 298 NDA MPs are expected to vote in favour. In contrast, the INDIA bloc has strongly opposed the move, alleging that the Centre is trying to fast-track the bill under the pretext of implementing women’s reservation.

The bill is linked to a population-based redrawing of constituencies using the 2011 census data. It proposes delimitation, a broader political restructuring that would alter the size and composition of both state legislative assemblies and the Lok Sabha. The government aims to implement women’s reservation before the 2029 general elections by introducing amendments to operationalise the 2023 Act and separate the delimitation process from the 2027 census.

The INDIA bloc, with about 235 to 238 MPs, has indicated it will vote against the bill, though there is some uncertainty over whether all its members will oppose it, abstain, or walk out during voting. Additionally, four MPs, including Independents, remain undecided and could either oppose the bill or abstain.

Opposition to the bill comes from parties such as Congress, Samajwadi Party, Trinamool Congress, DMK, Shiv Sena (UBT), NCP (SP), RJD, CPI(M), AAP, and others. On the other hand, the NDA has support from allies like TDP, JD(U), Shiv Sena, LJP (Ram Vilas), YSRCP, JD(S), Jana Sena Party, and RLD. The Zoram People’s Movement also has one MP in the Lok Sabha. Given these numbers, the bill is likely to pass in the Lok Sabha. The Centre has convened a special session of Parliament from April 16 to 18 to take up the matter.