In the midst of escalating India-Pakistan tensions, US Vice President J.D. Vance’s visit to India earlier this week may have seemed like a minor event, but it reinforced the evolving dynamics of the India-US relationship. While the visit itself was largely private, its significance was highlighted through public engagements that showcased the dual approach of top-down diplomacy and grassroots people-to-people interactions. However, the terrorist attack in Pahalgam underscored the reality that the US continues to play a key role in influencing the course of India-Pakistan relations.

America's Stance on Pakistan: The timing of the Kashmir attack during Vance’s visit was no accident. Pakistan, seeking to maintain relevance on the global stage despite its diminishing influence, aimed to remind Washington of Kashmir’s importance. Despite Pakistan’s protests over India’s 2019 revocation of Article 370, the international community, including the US, largely disregarded these concerns. Under the Biden administration, US policy has focused on fostering deeper ties with India, partly driven by the shifting global power landscape. The US withdrawal from Afghanistan and Pakistan’s growing alliance with China have resulted in a policy shift, offering humanitarian and economic support to Pakistan but avoiding significant military engagement.

Washington's Distance from the India-Pakistan Dispute: For some time, Washington has refrained from involving itself in the India-Pakistan conflict. The Trump administration, in particular, pulled back from global commitments, focusing instead on national priorities. In 2019, President Trump had offered to mediate the Kashmir dispute at India’s request, a claim that India firmly denied. Since then, Kashmir has rarely been discussed in US-India dialogues. During Prime Minister Modi’s visit to Washington earlier this year, the joint statement called on Pakistan to take strong action against terrorist groups like Jaish-e-Mohammad and Lashkar-e-Taiba, urging the country to bring justice to those responsible for the 26/11 Mumbai and 2016 Pathankot attacks. Pakistan’s response was one of defiance, labeling the joint statement as "misleading and contrary to diplomatic norms."

Pakistan’s Global Isolation: Pakistan’s diminishing influence in global strategy is a result of both its internal struggles and India’s successful international campaign to label it a state sponsor of terrorism. With a faltering economy, widespread social unrest, and increasing regional instability, Pakistan’s international partnerships are shrinking. Even China seems less inclined to support Pakistan, recognizing the latter’s economic troubles. The recent terror attacks in India can be seen as an attempt by Pakistan to capture Washington’s attention.

Vance, during his speech in India, emphasized the transformative potential of an India-US partnership, suggesting that if the two countries succeed in their collaboration, the 21st century could be marked by prosperity and peace. He praised Prime Minister Modi, signaling the US’s strategic partnership with India. This contrasted with his other speeches, where he had been critical of European leaders and others, including Zelensky. The terror attacks serve as a reminder of Pakistan’s continued reliance on desperate measures to provoke attention, but increasingly, such actions are leading to backlash against Pakistan. s the US deepens its engagement with India, the inability of Pakistan’s military-industrial complex to grasp this shift will likely lead to repeated mistakes. The future of India-Pakistan relations appears to be influenced less by Pakistan’s actions and more by the evolving nature of the US-India partnership.