Indian-Americans Lean Towards Democrats Ahead of US Midterm Elections, Survey Shows

Indian-American voters appear to be moving back towards the Democratic Party ahead of the upcoming US midterm elections, suggesting that the gains Donald Trump made among the community during the 2024 presidential election may not have translated into lasting Republican support. A new survey by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, conducted in partnership with YouGov in October 2026, found that 62 per cent of Indian-American citizens intend to vote for Democratic candidates in their congressional districts. Only 19 per cent said they would support Republicans. Another 12 per cent remained undecided, while 5 per cent said they did not plan to vote and 2 per cent preferred other candidates. A similar trend was visible in Senate races, where Democrats received the support of 63 per cent of respondents against 21 per cent for Republicans.

The survey covered 1,000 Indian-Americans and was conducted between October 7 and October 27, 2026. Its findings indicate a considerable change in voting preferences within a community that had shown increased support for Trump during the 2024 presidential election. The latest figures show a 43-percentage-point advantage for Democrats, considerably wider than the margin recorded in the previous presidential contest. In 2024, Kamala Harris secured 62 per cent of the Indian-American vote, while Trump received 30 per cent. During the 2020 election, Joe Biden had led Trump by 68 per cent to 22 per cent among Indian-American voters. Democratic support had declined to 57 per cent by January 2026, while Republican support had increased to 25 per cent.

The researchers have cautioned against making direct comparisons between these figures, as earlier surveys measured preferences in presidential elections, whereas the latest study examines voting intentions for congressional contests. The survey also highlights significant changes among Indian-American men, particularly those aged 40 and above. Republican support within this group fell from 32 per cent in January to 16 per cent in October 2026. At the same time, Democratic support increased from 53 per cent to 68 per cent. Younger Indian-American men have also shown a preference for Democratic candidates, with 64 per cent supporting Democrats and 23 per cent favouring Republicans. This marks a shift from the 2024 presidential election, when 40 per cent of younger Indian-American men supported Trump and 53 per cent backed Harris.

Voting preferences among women have followed a somewhat different pattern. Democratic support among women aged 18 to 39 stood at 58 per cent, down 10 percentage points from January. Among women aged 40 and above, support for Democrats recovered from 50 per cent in January to 58 per cent in October.

Another interesting aspect of the survey is the motivation behind voters' political choices. Among Indian-Americans planning to vote for Democratic candidates, 65 per cent said their decision was primarily driven by support for the party or its candidates. The remaining 35 per cent said their preference was mainly influenced by opposition to Republicans. Republican supporters showed a different pattern, with 83 per cent saying they backed their preferred party, while 17 per cent cited opposition to Democrats as their main reason.

These findings suggest that opposition to the Republican Party is contributing to the Democrats' current advantage among Indian-American voters, rather than the shift being driven entirely by stronger party loyalty. Despite changing voting intentions, overall party identification among Indian-Americans has remained relatively stable since January 2026. Around 46 per cent of respondents identified as Democrats, 19 per cent as Republicans and 26 per cent as independents. Over a longer period, however, the community's political identification has changed. In 2020, 56 per cent identified with Democrats and 15 per cent with Republicans. By 2024, the Democratic figure had fallen to 47 per cent, while Republican identification had risen to 21 per cent.

The difference between party identification and voting intentions is particularly noteworthy. Although 46 per cent of respondents described themselves as Democrats, 62 per cent said they intended to vote for Democratic congressional candidates. This indicates that the party is attracting support beyond its traditional voter base, including people who do not necessarily identify with it.

The findings highlight the challenge of retaining the additional support Trump gained among Indian-American voters in 2024. While that election demonstrated a change in voting preferences within sections of the community, the latest survey suggests that the momentum has not continued at the same level. As the United States prepares for the 2026 midterm elections, Indian-American voters are once again emerging as an important constituency to watch. Their preferences could offer valuable insights into changing political attitudes among immigrant communities and the broader electoral landscape in the country.

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