India is projected to contribute 6% to global trade growth over the next five years, as per the DHL Trade Atlas 2025 report, jointly published by New York University’s Stern School of Business and German logistics firm DHL. The report, which analyzes trade trends across nearly 200 countries and territories, indicates that India’s role in global trade expansion will be the third largest, following China at 12% and the United States at 10%. "India also emerges as the country with the third-highest absolute trade growth forecast (6% of additional global trade), trailing only China (12%) and the US (10%)," the report stated. It also highlighted that despite geopolitical challenges and trade policy uncertainties, global trade has shown resilience.

India is expected to maintain its third position in trade scale growth, attributed to its faster trade expansion compared to other major economies. Additionally, the country is projected to improve its ranking on the trade speed dimension, rising from 32nd to 17th place. Although India ranked as the 13th largest player in international trade in 2024, its trade volume grew at a compound annual rate of 5.2% between 2019 and 2024, significantly surpassing the global average of 2.0% during the same period.

"India’s rapid trade expansion is driven by its strong macroeconomic growth and increasing integration into global trade. While China is often seen as a more trade-driven economy, India's goods trade-to-GDP ratio was nearly equal to China’s in 2023. Moreover, India’s trade intensity, considering both goods and services, exceeded that of China," the report noted.

Looking ahead, the report forecasts that India, alongside Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines, will be among the top 30 countries in terms of both trade speed and scale over the next five years. Speaking to ANI, RS Subramanian, SVP South Asia at DHL Express, remarked, "The Trade Atlas highlights India's rapid global trade expansion, reinforcing its role as a key link between the East and West. While we foresee rising trade volumes and an increasing global trade share, we remain cautiously optimistic given ongoing economic volatility."

India's Foreign Trade Status: According to data from the Ministry of Commerce and Industry for March 2025, India’s total exports (including both goods and services) during April-February 2024-25 are estimated at $750.53 billion, marking a 6.24% year-on-year (Y-o-Y) growth from $706.43 billion in the previous fiscal period.

In February 2025, major contributors to merchandise export growth included electronic goods, rice, mica, coal, processed minerals, textiles, and coffee. Trade with key partners such as the US, UAE, UK, China, Japan, Brazil, and Australia remained robust. The trade deficit for the financial year 2023-24 (FY24) narrowed to $78.12 billion, down from $121.6 billion in FY23, as per the Ministry of Finance.

Disclaimer: This image is taken from Reuters.