New Delhi, June 2 (AHN) Is the Trinamool Congress in West Bengal entering a “Shiv Sena moment”? The question is doing the rounds in the political corridors of the state after reports of dissent and disapproval of party leadership started surfacing since its poll drubbing by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in early May.

Recent cracks in the Trinamool resemble the splits in the Shiv Sena and Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) between 2022-2023, where breakaway factions were legally recognised as the original parties. In West Bengal, at least two-thirds of Trinamool MLAs -- around 53 of its original number of 80 -- would need to defect together to avoid disqualification under the anti-defection law.

Reports suggest that around 50 MLAs are currently aggrieved, making the possibility of a formal split more than just speculation. This means Mamata Banerjee’s leadership is vulnerable not just to internal dissent but also to the institutional weight of the Election Commission’s recognition process.

Based on laws laid down, the poll body plays a decisive role in determining which faction of a split party is recognised as the “real” one. The Commission examines which faction commands the majority of legislators, also taking into consideration who controls the party’s organisational structure, including office bearers, committees, etc.

In the cases of Shiv Sena and NCP, the Election Commission and Maharashtra Assembly Speaker both decided that the faction holding legislative majority, not necessarily the original leadership, was the “real” party. For any Parliamentary or Assembly election, the Election Symbols Order, 1968, governs the specification, reservation, and allotment of symbols to political parties in India. Under this law, the poll body decides which faction gets the party’s election symbol.

The faction with majority support in either the legislature or organisation is usually recognised as the original party. If no clear majority exists, the Election Commission may freeze the party symbol and assign new ones to each faction until the dispute is resolved. Thus, the Shiv Sena faction led by Eknath Shinde and the NCP, then under Ajit Pawar, were recognised as the official entities.

Incidentally, in 1969, the Indian National Congress (Organisation), also known as Congress (O), came into being when the party split following the expulsion of Indira Gandhi. But she prevailed, with her faction -- Congress (Indira) or Congress (I) – gaining dominance through electoral victories.

For the Trinamool in West Bengal, the number of members in the state legislature has already come down to 78 after the expulsion of two MLAs. They had brought to light alleged fraudulent signatures in a party resolution nominating names for the posts of the Leader of Opposition in the West Bengal Assembly, two Deputy Leaders of the Opposition, and the party's Chief Whip.

Reports suggest that amid the current discontent within the Trinamool, 50 MLAs are “unhappy” with the leadership. Party meetings have witnessed low attendance, even leading to cancellation in the absence of a quorum.

Meanwhile, there were talks of “secret meetings” of MLAs having allegedly met outside official channels, fuelling speculation of an imminent split. However, even if such meetings did take place, the magic figure of 53 is the least requirement for legislators to break away and not come under the ambit of the anti-defection law. If not, they would risk expulsion from the legislature.

The BJP in West Bengal has ruled out welcoming turncoats from the Trinamool Congress as of now. Thus, any leader abandoning ship has to think in terms of a parallel platform rather than being absorbed into the folds of the ruling party.

Since the Congress (I) precedent, to Maharashtra in recent times, political upheavals show how numbers, with a charismatic leadership and mass appeal, can override all challenges, a lesson relevant to Mamata Banerjee’s current predicament. But the 71-year-old founder of Trinamool Congress may not want to give up without another fight.