Campaigning for the Philippines' midterm elections began on February 11, unfolding against a backdrop of deep political divisions and power struggles. The spotlight is on the recent impeachment of Vice President Sara Duterte, a move that could bar her from holding public office permanently. This development has intensified tensions between Duterte and President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., once allies whose partnership secured them a landslide victory in 2022 but has since unraveled into a fierce rivalry.

The upcoming elections are shaping up to be a crucial battleground, not only for legislative control but also as a preview of the 2028 presidential race. With Marcos constitutionally limited to a single term, he is expected to position a successor, while Duterte’s future hinges on the outcome of her impeachment trial.

Political analyst Ronald Llamas highlights the dramatic shift in alliances, noting how the same forces that dominated in 2022 are now at war. "They won with historic numbers, yet almost immediately after, they started falling apart," he remarked, likening the unfolding events to a high-stakes political thriller.

In May, voters will decide on 317 congressional seats and thousands of local positions, but the fiercest competition will be for 12 seats in the Senate. The chamber’s influence is particularly significant, as it will play a key role in Duterte’s impeachment trial, requiring at least 16 senators to vote for her removal. Early polls suggest Marcos' allies are leading the race, but Duterte’s loyalists remain competitive, keeping her camp in the fight. The trial also carries major implications for the Duterte family’s political dynasty. Former President Rodrigo Duterte, still a powerful figure at 79, is running for mayor in Davao City, while his sons seek local and congressional positions, aiming to maintain their regional stronghold.

Duterte’s impeachment, driven by allegations of financial misconduct and threats against top officials, was pushed forward by the House of Representatives, led by Speaker Martin Romualdez—Marcos’ cousin. While Duterte has denied all charges, and Marcos himself has distanced from the impeachment, the outcome could significantly shape the country’s political landscape. With Duterte previously topping polls as a preferred presidential candidate for 2028, her removal could clear the way for Marcos to handpick his successor. As Llamas puts it, convicting her would “level the playing field,” eliminating the strongest competitor before the next major election.

Disclaimer: This image is taken from Reuters.