Rapidan Energy Group has warned that if the Strait of Hormuz remains shut through August, the world economy could face a downturn similar in severity to the 2008 financial crisis. The consultancy’s primary forecast assumes the crucial shipping route reopens sometime in July. Under that scenario, global oil demand would fall by around 2.6 million barrels per day, while Brent crude prices could surge to nearly $130 per barrel during the summer months.

The firm cautioned that a longer disruption extending into August and September would create a much bigger supply shock, forcing a sharper drop in oil demand to stabilize markets. Such a situation could even lead to a year-on-year decline in global oil consumption in 2026. Some major forecasting agencies are already predicting an unusual slowdown in worldwide oil demand this year.

Oil markets have been highly volatile since late February, with prices almost doubling amid escalating tensions involving the US, Israel, and Iran. The conflict has raised fears of rising inflation coupled with weaker economic growth across major economies. According to Rapidan analysts, the current global economy is in a somewhat stronger position than during the oil shocks of the 1970s or the 2007–08 financial crisis because economies today are less dependent on oil and central banks have stronger policy frameworks. Still, they warned that continued spikes in oil prices could intensify existing financial and economic pressures.

The report estimates that if the Strait remains closed until August, the global oil supply shortfall in the third quarter could widen to nearly 6 million barrels per day, especially as inventories fall to critically low levels. Even if the route reopens in early August, Rapidan believes the market would continue to face tight conditions for some time. Oil stockpiles are expected to keep shrinking into September while Gulf producers slowly restore output and shipments gradually resume reaching international buyers.