Renowned foreign affairs analyst Fareed Zakaria recently expressed optimism about a potential India-US trade agreement in an exclusive conversation with NDTV, suggesting that strategic diplomacy could help both countries overcome existing obstacles. He emphasized that Prime Minister Narendra Modi might navigate sensitive issues, such as agriculture, by offering alternatives like increased US investments or defense purchases, leveraging President Donald Trump’s deal-making style.

Zakaria noted that Trump often prioritizes high-profile announcements over long-term enforcement, meaning large promises—such as a $200 billion investment in the US—could satisfy him without immediate scrutiny, allowing India to safeguard sensitive sectors. He framed this approach as compatible with Trump’s transactional nature, where perception often outweighs detail.

India currently faces pressure from US tariffs, including a 50% levy imposed in August on Russian oil imports, which slowed discussions following PM Modi’s recent meeting with Putin. Zakaria, however, views this as short-term friction rooted in mutual protectionism rather than a rupture in the 25-year strategic partnership, which remains anchored in shared democratic values and technological ties.

He highlighted the importance of long-term people-to-people connections, such as the Indian diaspora and collaborations in business, science, and innovation, which continue to strengthen bilateral relations despite occasional government-level disagreements. These enduring links provide a foundation for cooperation, ensuring trade disputes do not derail broader progress.

Zakaria also addressed Trump’s repeated claims—over 60 times since May—of facilitating an India-Pakistan ceasefire after Operation Sindoor, describing them as risky attempts at a Nobel-worthy narrative. He advised that India could manage Trump’s ego diplomatically, acknowledging his involvement without formally conceding mediation, thus preserving India’s dignity while leveraging Trump’s transactional mindset.

Following a December 11 call between Modi and Trump, speculation about a trade deal has increased. Such an agreement could enhance bilateral trade, which is approaching $132 billion, reduce tariffs, expand market access for US tech and Indian pharmaceuticals, and signal stability in the Indo-Pacific region.