Bangladesh, a relatively young nation with a population of 160 million, has made significant strides in economic and social development in recent years. As one of the fastest-growing economies in the world, it has garnered international praise for its advancements in poverty reduction and public health. Despite these achievements, Bangladesh’s political landscape remains deeply polarized, with a history of political violence, including assassinations and election-related conflicts. As the country approaches its next general elections, concerns have emerged over the potential for mass violence, fueled by entrenched political tensions and authoritarian tendencies.

One of the main factors driving the risk of violence in Bangladesh is its classification as a “partial democracy with factionalism.” In this political environment, competition between fragmented political groups, particularly the two dominant parties the Awami League (AL) and the Bangladesh National Party (BNP) is intense. Both parties, which have alternated in power over the years, often engage in a zero-sum struggle for political control. This fierce competition has led to a history of violence, with each party accusing the other of corruption and authoritarianism. This type of political environment, characterized by factionalism, increases the risk of instability, particularly during periods of heightened competition, such as elections.

The upcoming general elections in 2018 were seen as a potential flashpoint for mass violence. Given Bangladesh’s deep political divides, there were concerns that the elections could trigger large-scale violence, either in the form of pre-election clashes, election-day conflicts, or post-election reprisals. The stakes of the election were extremely high for both parties, and their supporters were likely to take extreme measures to secure victory. Additionally, the ruling party’s increasing authoritarianism and attempts to restrict civil society space raised further fears that state forces could be used to suppress opposition through violence, thereby escalating tensions.

Bangladesh’s political history, marked by widespread violence, further heightens the risk of mass atrocities. The country’s struggle for independence from Pakistan in 1971 is a traumatic chapter in its history. During the war of independence, the Pakistani army, along with its collaborators, committed horrific atrocities against civilians. Estimates suggest that millions of people were killed, and hundreds of thousands of women were raped or tortured. The violence disproportionately targeted the Hindu minority and individuals who were seen as sympathizers to the independence movement. The legacy of these events still shapes the country’s political climate, as some of the perpetrators of these atrocities, including members of the Islamist Jamaat-e-Islami party, continue to hold political power and enjoy impunity.

The enduring impunity for the crimes committed during the 1971 war has contributed to the ongoing political violence in the country. Many perpetrators were never held accountable, which has fostered an environment where violence is sometimes seen as a legitimate means to achieve political goals. This lack of accountability, combined with the high-stakes nature of the 2018 elections, creates a dangerous scenario in which violence could escalate rapidly. In addition to political factionalism and historical grievances, other factors contribute to the risk of mass violence in Bangladesh. The country is also grappling with state-led discrimination, particularly against ethnic and religious minorities, and regional instability that can spill over into Bangladesh. As conflicts in neighboring countries intensify, there is a growing concern that extremist ideologies and militant groups could exploit Bangladesh’s internal divisions, further inflaming tensions.

While mass killings are relatively rare, Bangladesh’s political instability and historical context create a volatile environment. Preventing such violence requires careful analysis and foresight. Key to averting mass violence is early intervention, which involves addressing underlying issues such as political polarization, authoritarianism, and the continued impunity of violent actors. Strengthening civil society and ensuring that the political system is more inclusive and less factionalized are also critical steps in reducing the risk of mass atrocities.

The risk of large-scale violence in Bangladesh may not be immediate, but the potential is real, especially as the country approaches critical political moments like national elections. The international community, as well as Bangladesh’s political leaders and civil society organizations, must be proactive in recognizing the signs of escalating violence and take measures to address the underlying causes. By working together to prevent violence, Bangladesh can avoid the tragic fate of many countries that have succumbed to mass atrocities in the past.

In conclusion, the combination of political factionalism, historical trauma, and the current authoritarian tendencies within Bangladesh presents a serious risk of mass violence. Understanding and addressing these risks early, through preventive measures and greater accountability, can help ensure that Bangladesh’s political future remains peaceful and stable, avoiding the devastating consequences of past atrocities.

Disclaimer: The image is taken from Reuters.