HONG KONG — China's September ICBM test involved discreetly transporting a missile over 1,000 km to a launch site and utilizing remote bases and satellites to monitor it from Hainan Island to the South Pacific, highlighting a significant operational necessity.
Six security analysts and four diplomats noted that while the September 25 launch carried political implications amid China's expanding nuclear arsenal, it also fulfilled a crucial requirement for the People's Liberation Army's Rocket Force to validate the effectiveness of its nuclear deterrent.
The test incorporated strategic diplomacy, as Beijing informed the United States, France, and New Zealand in advance. However, some analysts warn that if China intends to increase its missile testing frequency to keep pace with rivals, further measures will be necessary.
Australia was informed just hours before the launch about a planned activity, without specifics, and is among Pacific nations expressing concerns over China's ballistic missile tests in the region.
"This allowed the Chinese to conduct a test with a complete attack profile," said Hans Kristensen, director of the Federation of American Scientists' Nuclear Information Project. "Operationally, this represents a significant step... the test validates the entire system."
In recent years, the Rocket Force has conducted extensive testing, launching around 135 ballistic missiles in 2021, primarily in China's remote deserts. However, it had not used its longest-range missiles in a realistic attack trajectory since 1980, a practice routinely conducted by the United States, Russia, and India.
While Western militaries believe China has enhanced its warheads, missiles, and silos, only full-range tests can accurately assess the reliability and precision of a ballistic missile and its warhead due to the stress and distance involved.
The test over the ocean was likely tracked by China's developing network of satellites, ground stations, and ships, including those stationed in the disputed South China Sea and in Namibia and Argentina, according to diplomats and analysts. At the time, two of China’s advanced "space support" ships, the Yuan-wang 3 and Yuan-wang 5, were positioned in the Pacific.
China’s defense ministry did not disclose the missile's landing location but stated that the dummy warhead "fell into expected sea areas" and did not respond to requests for comment.
Although some analysts claim the U.S. deployed surveillance aircraft to monitor the missile, specific launch and landing locations have not been publicly shared. Reports from French Polynesia indicated that the missile landed near the territory's exclusive economic zone, over 11,000 km from Hainan.
Timothy Wright, a missile researcher at the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies, noted that the test provided the PLA with an excellent opportunity to assess its long-range missile tracking capabilities.
"China's satellite, ground station, and tracking ship network are still developing, and there are uncertainties about the effectiveness of its space-based intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities," Wright added.
For this test, the PLA utilized one of its older ICBMs, the DF-31, which analysts noted was launched from Hainan to follow a trajectory that largely avoided other nations. The nearest DF-31s to Hainan are stationed 1,100 km away in Yibin, Sichuan province, managed by a Rocket Force unit associated with the Hainan unit.
Conducting tests from silos in mainland China or over the Arctic to the North Atlantic would present more complex geographical and diplomatic challenges.
Japan and the Philippines were warned about possible sea debris from the launch, but some Pacific Island nations closer to the landing area were not informed by China. Kiribati's president criticized the test on October 8, stating that the country had received no prior notification.
A spokesperson from New Zealand’s foreign ministry informed Reuters that after receiving notification, Wellington reached out to Pacific island partners.
James Char, a security scholar specializing in China based in Singapore, suggested that Beijing would likely exercise caution regarding negative reactions to frequent missile launches and would be careful about exposing its military capabilities to rivals.
"We can be certain that Beijing is very cautious in guarding the true nature and extent of its military capabilities," Char stated, from the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies.
Disclaimer: This image is taken from Reuters
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