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Opinion Economic Survey 2024 Resilient Growth Amidst Global Challenges

Published On Tue, 23 Jul 2024
Nikhil Sinha
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The Economic Survey of India has become an essential resource for analysts, commentators, and the public, typically released a day before the Union Budget or two days earlier when there was a separate railway budget. It started as an executive decision in 1950-51, initially as a 'white paper' within budget documents, and has significantly expanded in scope over the years. Initially relying on secondary data due to a lack of readily available figures and analysts, the survey served as a primary data source for those outside the government. Historically, these surveys were dense and repetitive, with minimal annual changes beyond updated figures. However, the 1990s economic changes led to an expansion in coverage and more variables. While primarily reviewing the past year’s economic performance, the survey has also suggested future reforms, though these have not always aligned with budget outcomes.
The survey, primarily authored by the Chief Economic Advisor (CEA), later became an anonymous document from the Department of Economic Affairs (DEA), allowing CEAs to express their viewpoints and interpretations. This shift made the survey more opinionated, with some CEAs using it to advocate their economic perspectives, sometimes diverging from the traditional format. Since 2021-22, the Economic Surveys have refocused on economic performance, emphasizing facts over opinions. This classic approach provides a detailed overview of the economy’s performance over the past year, with more analysis and less subjective commentary. The current Economic Survey maintains this template, consisting of 13 chapters.
The Economic Survey 2023-24 highlights the resilience of India's economy. The real GDP growth rate reached 8.2% in FY24, maintaining over 7% growth for three consecutive years, and projects FY25 real GDP growth at 6.5% to 7%. Economic growth was driven by stable consumption and increasing investment demand. Gross Value Added (GVA) grew by 7%, indicating broad-based sectoral growth. Notably, net taxes at constant prices increased by 19%, supported by strong tax growth and subsidy rationalization.
Manufacturing GVA rebounded with a 9.9% increase due to reduced input prices and stable domestic demand. The services sector saw growth from double-digit increases in GST collections and e-way bills. Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) grew by 4%, supported by strong urban and gradually recovering rural demand. Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) was a crucial growth driver, with significant rises in private capital expenditure. However, the survey could have emphasized ongoing consumption issues more.
Disclaimer: This image is taken from Reuters.
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