Jharkhand is preparing for the second and final phase of assembly elections, scheduled for November 20, alongside Maharashtra. In the first phase, held on November 13, 43 seats were contested, primarily in Kolhan, South Chotanagpur, Palamu, and parts of North Chotanagpur. The upcoming phase will involve 20 seats in North Chotanagpur and 18 in Santhal Pargana, regions significant for their political and demographic dynamics.

The INDIA bloc seeks to retain power, relying on its welfare schemes and a narrative of tribal pride. Meanwhile, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is attempting a comeback by focusing on allegations of corruption and non-performance against the Soren government. Notably, women voters outnumbered men by 4.8% in the first phase, with female turnout at 69.04% compared to 64.27% for males. The overall voter turnout in the first phase was 66.65%, marking an increase from the 2019 elections. The INDIA bloc attributes the high turnout to beneficiaries of its welfare programs, while the NDA interprets it as a sign of anti-incumbency.

During Diwali and Chhath Puja, observations revealed the prominence of tribal identity in political discussions. The arrest of Chief Minister Hemant Soren has amplified the adivasi pride narrative, with the INDIA bloc framing it as a political conspiracy against a popular leader. This narrative was evident in the 2024 general elections, where the bloc swept all five tribal-reserved seats. To counter this, the BJP is promoting its own tribal leaders, such as Babulal Marandi and Arjun Munda.

The elections have also highlighted an insider-versus-outsider dynamic. Tribals, often economically disadvantaged, accuse outsiders of dominating government and private sector jobs and prospering at their expense. The JMM is seen as championing local interests, while the BJP is viewed as representing outsiders. This identity-driven polarization has overshadowed debates about MLA performance, with voters prioritizing caste or community affiliation over governance.

The BJP has adopted the slogan "Batenge to Katenge," emphasizing issues like "love jihad" in regions like Santhal Pargana. It accuses the JMM of allowing demographic changes unfavorable to tribal communities and has promised to implement the National Register of Citizens (NRC) to address these concerns. The INDIA bloc, in contrast, is banking on welfare schemes like the Maiya Samman Yojana, which provides financial support to women, a crucial demographic in this election.

The Congress, a key ally in the INDIA bloc, is perceived as a weaker link despite its historical strongholds in Chotanagpur. Internal challenges, such as a last-minute leadership change, have raised questions about its preparedness. On the other hand, Kalpana Soren's emergence as a prominent figure within the JMM has energized the party's campaign, particularly among women and young voters, who resonate with her advocacy for welfare programs.

Both alliances have made ambitious promises in their manifestos, reflecting the high stakes of this election. Women voters, in particular, are expected to play a decisive role in shaping the outcome.

Disclaimer:This image is taken from NDTV