In Yangon, Myanmar, poverty is at its highest level in six years, with economic growth projected to stagnate at just one percent in the current fiscal year, according to a report released by the World Bank on June 12. The nation, plagued by escalating violence, labor shortages, and a depreciating currency, faces significant challenges for businesses, the report noted. The political and economic upheaval stemming from the 2021 military coup has exacerbated these difficulties, undoing a decade of tentative democratic and economic reforms.

Initial projections by the World Bank in December 2023 anticipated a two percent growth for Myanmar's economy in the current fiscal year, following a one percent growth in the previous year. However, due to persistently high inflation and constraints on labor, foreign exchange, and electricity access, growth expectations for 2024/25 have been revised downward.

According to the report, poverty rates have surged to 32.1 percent, returning to levels not seen since 2015, with poverty becoming more entrenched than in the past six years. The ongoing civil conflict, displacing over three million people, has contributed significantly to this worsening situation.

The junta's response to mounting resistance has included a conscription plan announced in February 2024, which has led to increased migration to rural areas and abroad, exacerbating labor shortages in various sectors. Furthermore, the junta's loss of access to crucial land borders with China and Thailand has resulted in a significant decline in overland trade, with merchandise exports falling by 13 percent and imports dropping by 20 percent in the six months leading up to March 2024.

Currency volatility, attempts by the junta to control it, and rapid inflation are expected to further strain households, while industries will continue to grapple with electricity and foreign currency shortages. Energy production is anticipated to decline further, worsening the economic outlook for Myanmar in the near to medium term.