Russian President Vladimir Putin approved significant revisions to Russia’s nuclear doctrine, lowering the threshold for a nuclear response to conventional military attacks. The updated policy expands the circumstances under which nuclear weapons could be deployed, allowing their use in defense of Russia or its ally Belarus if a conventional attack poses a critical threat to their sovereignty or territorial integrity. This marks a notable departure from the previous doctrine, which primarily restricted nuclear use to responses against nuclear attacks or existential threats to the Russian state.

The timing of this update follows Ukraine’s use of U.S.-supplied ATACMS missiles to strike deep within Russian territory. The strikes, reportedly approved by the Biden administration, targeted Russia’s Bryansk region and have drawn sharp reactions from Moscow. Russian officials, including Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, accused the U.S. of enabling the strikes, stating they would interpret such actions as direct involvement by NATO in the war. Lavrov warned that Russia would respond accordingly, while emphasizing that Moscow seeks to avoid nuclear conflict. He also criticized the U.S., referencing its use of atomic weapons in Hiroshima and Nagasaki during World War II.

Under the revised doctrine, Russia now considers any attack by a non-nuclear state supported by a nuclear-armed ally—or an attack by a member of a military bloc—as a joint assault, potentially justifying a nuclear response. The Kremlin stated this update aims to reinforce deterrence, ensuring adversaries recognize the inevitability of nuclear retaliation in the event of aggression against Russia or its allies. The doctrine also includes broader definitions of what could constitute an attack, such as strikes involving aircraft, cruise missiles, or unmanned aerial systems. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov denied the revisions were directly linked to the U.S. decision to permit Ukraine’s use of long-range missiles but emphasized that the timing was intentional to reaffirm Russia’s nuclear stance.

This development comes as the war in Ukraine, now in its 1,000th day, enters what analysts describe as its most volatile and dangerous phase. Moscow’s forces have recently made advances at their fastest pace since the early weeks of the conflict, while Ukraine continues to resist, bolstered by Western military aid. Both sides appear to be escalating efforts to strengthen their positions amid speculation over how the war might conclude. The Kremlin compared the current crisis to the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, warning of the unprecedented dangers posed by the confrontation between nuclear powers. Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov highlighted the unique nature of the situation, describing it as uncharted military and political territory.

Market reactions were immediate, reflecting growing fears of escalation. Safe-haven assets like government bonds and the Japanese yen saw gains, while global stocks and the euro fell. The Russian ruble weakened significantly, falling past 100 per U.S. dollar for the first time since October 2023. The revised nuclear doctrine underscores Moscow’s commitment to maintaining a strong deterrence posture while intensifying warnings to the West. Analysts view the updates as a clear signal of Russia’s resolve to escalate its response if necessary, raising the stakes in a conflict that has already strained international security and economic stability.

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